Diageo exploring potential spin-off or sale of Guinness

Category: Academics

Diageo, the world's top spirits maker, is exploring a potential spin-off or sale of beer brand Guinness and is reviewing its stake in LVMH's drinks unit, Moet Hennessy, Bloomberg News reported on Friday (24), citing people familiar with the matter. News about a potential sale of the beer label, a star performer in Diageo's portfolio, helped lift Diageo's shares almost 4% higher, becoming the top percentage gainer on the blue-chip index. However, some analysts and one source familiar with the situation said a Guinness sale right now did not make sense. Diageo declined to comment on market speculation; LVMH declined to comment. Guinness is an outlier in Diageo's business, which consists mostly of spirits rather than beer, but its performance recently has outshone that of key liquor labels like Johnnie Walker whisky. Spirits sales have struggled as a post-pandemic boom in demand for pricey bottles of liquor went into reverse. Meanwhile, Guinness sales have grown by double digits every year since 2021, with its zero-alcohol version also surging. Its recent success could make Guinness an attractive asset. It would likely be valued at above $10 billion, Bloomberg reported, citing the sources. Diageo's liquor brands also offer a higher margin and generally, drinkers in developed markets are shifting away from beer and towards spirits-based drinks like cocktails. But at the same time, Guinness' success also left analysts like Laurence Whyatt at Barclays wondering why Diageo would want to sell it. "I would be very surprised if Diageo wanted to sell Guinness," he said, adding it was unusual for companies to want to sell their best-performing assets. A source familiar with the situation agreed that it makes no sense for Diageo to sell Guinness in the near term given its performance, adding Diageo does not need the money and CEO Debra Crew had said publicly how much she likes the label. Bloomberg also reported that Diageo could look to deepen its ownership in the Moet Hennessy venture, or exit altogether. In a note earlier on Friday, Bernstein analyst Trevor Stirling said Diageo taking full control of the LVMH wine and spirits division would likely necessitate "a very reluctant disposal of beer/Guinness".